Would you vote for Trump in 2024?

John Hawkins,

Donald Trump’s former chief of staff and current special envoy for Northern Ireland, Mick Mulvaney, says that Donald Trump will run for President again in 2024 if he loses this election. The Irish Times notes,

Mr. Mulvaney, who served as Mr. Trump’s White House chief of staff before taking up his current role, said the US president did not like losing and he would be younger than Mr Biden is now if he decided to run in 2024.

“I would absolutely expect the president to stay involved in politics and would absolutely put him on the shortlist of people who are likely to run in 2024,” he said on a webinar hosted by the Dublin think tank, the Institute for International and European Affairs.

The former Republican congressman described Mr Trump as a “very high-energy 74-year-old” who he expects to be “further engaged in 2024 or 2028 if he were to lose this next election”.

There is a reason people like George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Bob Dole didn’t run again after they lost. Once you lose a major race like that, people typically categorize you as a loser and don’t want to see you run again.

Could that be different for Donald Trump? Yes, for a couple of reasons.

First of all, he has a very dedicated fan base compared to most politicians. In a primary, those voters would give him a significant advantage. On top of that, given how things have gone since November 3rd, if Trump loses, a lot of Republicans will believe he was cheated. In those situations, people sometimes look at giving the candidate another crack at it as just the right thing to do.

On the other hand, Trump would be 78 years old in 4 years. That is long in the tooth for a potential President of the United States. Additionally, keep in mind that when a person is elected President, there is a strong “follow-the-leader” effect that comes into play in their party. People will make every excuse, look away from every fault, and fight tooth and nail to defend “their guy.” If that person loses, suddenly many of those same people are just not as invested anymore. That means his fan base will turn out to be significantly smaller than it looks right now.

On top of all that, IF Trump loses, he will have to face a new primary field and some of those candidates may poll much better against Joe Biden than he does. If, just spitballing here, someone like Kristi Noem or Tom Cotton were polling orders of magnitude better against Joe Biden than Trump, that would be enough to sway a lot of voters. In the end, we can’t predict what will happen for sure. After all, Trump could still even be reelected right now. However, if there is one thing everyone has learned about Trump by now, it’s that it is wise to never count him out.

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