Kevin McCullough, First off he doesn’t have—and never really did have—a 10-point lead.
Last week New York magazine attempted to explain how Biden’s 10-point lead, which by their admission was only a touch over seven points had not been impacted by the conventions. They then cited the “polling averages” of Real Clear Politics and Nate Silver’s operations as proof that the just under seven-point lead Biden had post conventions did not represent a Trump bump.
Despite the fact that six recent national polls show the president closing the gap to within two to five points, that his average in recent polls show him garnering record African American and Latino voters, and that nearly all polls where Biden leads are amongst registered voters, the left continues to pretend that Biden is pulling away.
The only problem is everyone on team Biden knows he’s not.
Most national polls present data badly misaligned with likely voters. They poll register voters and manipulate the weighting of the polls to reflect nothing of what final turnout will resemble.
If you know that every election cycle going back three decades is 33 percent Democrats, 33 percent Republicans and 34 percent Independents on average, then you also know you’re spiking results with polls that weight 38 percent Democrats and 19 percent Republicans.
You also have a clear understanding of what it means if the favored candidate in such polling dips under 10 percent. You’re losing. Bigly.
Pro tip here: Don’t go by polling averages. Dig into the minutia of the polls themselves and you find a different story. Look for “likely voter polls” instead of “registered.” Look for polls that reflect a more even divide.
Those polls tell a different—far more accurate—story.
But Old Joe isn’t just behind in polling—real polling. He’s also behind on every point of messaging.
In fact if you truly want to see what candidate is winning the election—observe who controls the narrative.
Biden always reacts to Trump. Hence Trump is winning.
Trump’s economy has overseen the four largest months of job creation in history these past four months. On the Sunday before Labor Day Biden releases his “jobs plan.” (And to be candid it had almost zero substance pertaining to job creation—just more recycled COVID-19, pro-BLM stuff). One section talks about re-igniting manufacturing jobs. You know, the ones Trump has already been bringing back. Biden’s plan pledges better wage growth for the poorest workers. Trump’s economy had already been doing that for two straight years.
Biden was forced to react to Trump’s appropriate description of what would happen in “Joe Biden’s America.” With zero creativity the Biden people tried to spin it back on what is happening in “Donald Trump’s America.” But the level of awareness that voters have as to who is truly in charge in the violent cities and suburbs is far past the Biden late-to-the-party branding. Democrats own the violence and by the time Biden woke up from his nap to realize they never discussed it even once from the convention it was far too late.
Biden’s team has decided to go all in on saying that Trump hasn’t led on COVID-19. They believe that this is the death blow to Trump’s chances of re-election. They promise that Biden will lead and solve on COVID. They have enlisted Democrat governors to attempt to help create this reality. They make the argument that the president should have taken a non-Constitutional approach and mandated national policy in masks, lockdowns, schools, and re-openings. Their problem is that they are 100 percent wrong on all of these items. The president took early action (that Biden and Pelosi labeled racist). He initiated private sector solutions on everything from therapies to ventilators. No hospital was ever in need of a supply they did not receive. And because of Operation Warp Speed the engagement of competitive private sector solutions will likely give us not one but up to eight viable vaccines—possibly by October. Yet right on cue, Biden’s team dismissed any validity to whether these vaccines will work. They have to. Because Trump has outpaced, out lapped, out thought, and out performed them, they have no other solutions (minus the mask mandates and promises to shut the economy down again thing).
Joe Biden’s campaign is the epitome of an Obama Era slogan. It was a slogan that lost control of conflicts in Libya and Yemen, and got our navy’s finest held hostage in Iran on Obama-Biden’s watch.
“Leading from behind.”
President Trump doesn’t much like that idea.
And according to a poll to be taken on November 3rd, the world will know that neither do most Americans.