In Pennsylvania, if their data and predictive models are correct, it’s going to be a bloodbath.
“The Democrats are going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of a three-quarter million head start heading into tomorrow, probably more than that. What we know right now that there are 2.6 million Trump voters likely to show up tomorrow, and there are 1.5 million remaining Biden voters to show up tomorrow. Pennsylvania, in particular, is going to look on election night on an Election Day vote standpoint like the president wins in an absolute landslide. However, we know the margins he needs to win by in Pennsylvania, and that math is available to us from a turnout perspective,” Trump campaign director of battleground strategy Nick Trainer said.
“Democrats have banked a ton of high propensity voters, voters that were going to vote anyway have cast their ballot by mail. We have millions of voters left in Pennsylvania for the president. President Trump’s Election Day margin needs to be big and it will. We currently project he’ll win the Election Day vote in Pennsylvania by over 1 million votes,” he continued (bolding is mine). “Democrats going to have somewhere between 3/4 million vote head start but we know right now that there are 2.6 million trump voters likely to show up tomorrow, 1.5 million remaining Biden voters to show up tomorrow.”
Going into Election Day, with early voting and absentee ballots accounted for, the Trump campaign says Ohio and North Carolina both have a 400,000 vote margin advantage for Trump. In Michigan 400,000 and Wisconsin, 100,000. Florida gives Trump a 500,000 vote advantage while early voting indicators for Biden don’t bode well. They also put Nevada in the win column by 50,000 votes. Arizona won’t be close.
The bottom line: Biden isn’t where he needs to be in early or absentee voting and President Trump is highly confident high turnout on Election Day will put him over the top.